The temporal correlation between positive testing and death in Italy: from the first phase to the later evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: After the global spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), research has concentrated its efforts on several aspects of the epidemiological burden of pandemic. In this frame, the presented study follows a previous analysis of the temporal link between cases and deaths during the first epidemic wave (Phase 1) in Italy (March-June 2020). METHODS: We here analyze the COVID-19 epidemic in the time span from March 2020 to June 2021. RESULTS: The elaboration of the curves of cases and deaths allows identifying the temporal shift between the positive testing and the fatal event, which corresponds to one week from W2 to W33, two weeks from W34 to W41, and three weeks from W42 to W67. Based on this finding, we calculate the Weekly Lethality Rate (WLR). The WLR was grossly overestimated (~13.5%) in Phase 1, while a mean value of 2.6% was observed in most of Phase 2 (starting from October 2020), with a drop to 1.4% in the last investigated weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, these findings offer an interesting insight into the magnitude and time evolution of the lethality burden attributable to COVID-19 during the entire pandemic period in Italy. In particular, the analysis highlighted the impact of the effectiveness of public health and social measures, of changes in disease management, and of preventive strategies over time.  (www.actabiomedica.it).

A global analysis of conservative and non-conservative mutations in SARS-CoV-2 detected in the first year of the COVID-19 world-wide diffusion.

The ability of SARS-CoV-2 to rapidly mutate represents a remarkable complicancy. Quantitative evaluations of the effects that these mutations have on the virus structure/function is of great relevance and the availability of a large number of SARS-CoV-2 sequences since the early phases of the pandemic represents a unique opportunity to follow the adaptation of the virus to humans. Here, we evaluated the SARS-CoV-2 amino acid mutations and their progression by analyzing publicly available viral genomes at three stages of the pandemic (2020 March 15th and October 7th, 2021 February 7th). Mutations were classified in conservative and non-conservative based on the probability to be accepted during the evolution according to the Point Accepted Mutation substitution matrices and on the similarity of the encoding codons. We found that the most frequent substitutions are T > I, L > F, and A > V and we observe accumulation of hydrophobic residues. These findings are consistent among the three stages analyzed. We also found that non-conservative mutations are less frequent than conservative ones. This finding may be ascribed to a progressive adaptation of the virus to the host. In conclusion, the present study provides indications of the early evolution of the virus and tools for the global and genome-specific evaluation of the possible impact of mutations on the structure/function of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Analysis of the time evolution of COVID-19 lethality during the first epidemic wave in Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: While the entire world is still experiencing the dramatic emergency due to SARS-CoV-2, Italy has a prominent position since it has been the locus of the first major outbreak among Western countries. The aim of this study is the evaluation of temporal connection between SARS-CoV-2 positive tests (cases) and deaths in Italy in the first wave of the epidemic. METHODS: A temporal link between cases and deaths was determined by comparing their daily/weekly trends using surveillance data of the period March 2-June 2020. RESULTS: The monitoring of the cases/deaths evolution during the first wave of the outbreak highlights a striking correlation between infections of a certain week and deaths of the following one. We defined a weekly lethality rate that is virtually unchanged over the entire months of April and May until the first week of June (≈13.6%). Due to the rather low number of cases/deaths, this parameter starts to fluctuate in the following three weeks. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis indicates that the weekly lethality rate is virtually unchanged over the entire first wave of the epidemic, despite the progressive increase of the testing. As observed for the overall lethality, this parameter uniformly presents rather high values. The definition of a temporal link between cases and deaths will likely represent a useful tool for highlighting analogies and differences between the first and the second wave of the pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness, even if partial, of the strategies applied during the ongoing outbreak. (www.actabiomedica.it).